Walker Buehler, one of the most talented pitchers in Major League Baseball, could be making a significant impact for the Boston Red Sox following reports that he is on the brink of signing a one-year, $21.05 million deal. This contract represents a calculated risk for both Buehler and the Red Sox, with potential rewards that could transform the team’s pitching rotation into one of the more formidable in the American League.
Buehler, 29, was once viewed as the future of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ pitching staff, having been a key piece in their rotation for years. However, a series of injuries—including Tommy John surgery in 2022—has put his career trajectory in a bit of flux. Despite this, his immense talent when healthy, coupled with the potential of a bounce-back season, could be exactly what the Red Sox need to fortify a rotation that has been inconsistent in recent years.
The Red Sox’s Pitching Woes and the Need for Improvement
To fully understand why Walker Buehler’s acquisition could be so important for the Red Sox, it’s necessary to look at the team’s pitching situation over the past few seasons. Boston has been a playoff contender in large part due to their offensive depth, but their pitching staff has often been a weakness. The Red Sox rotation has had difficulty maintaining consistency, with injuries, underperformance, and lack of depth all contributing to their struggles.
In 2023, the Red Sox finished with a mediocre 81-81 record, and their pitching staff ranked 18th in the league in ERA. Despite having some talented arms—like Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock—Boston was unable to find reliable consistency, and their rotation often let the team down at crucial moments. Sale, in particular, has been plagued by injuries in recent years, and while Whitlock showed flashes of brilliance, he has also battled injury issues and inconsistency.
This inconsistency left the Red Sox front office with a pressing need to address their starting pitching depth, especially if they wanted to contend for a postseason berth in 2024. Enter Buehler, whose one-year deal presents a low-risk, high-reward proposition for a team desperate to find stability on the mound.
Walker Buehler’s Impressive Career Before Injuries
Before his injuries, Buehler was among the most highly regarded pitchers in baseball. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the first round of the 2015 MLB Draft, and by 2018, he was already a staple of their starting rotation. Over the next few seasons, Buehler quickly established himself as a top-tier pitcher, earning a reputation for his electric fastball, sharp curveball, and poise on the mound.
In 2019, Buehler posted a 3.26 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP and 215 strikeouts over 182.1 innings, helping to anchor a Dodgers rotation that would go on to win the World Series in 2020. His ability to handle the postseason spotlight was also noteworthy, as he contributed significantly in high-leverage games. Buehler’s emergence as an ace was critical to the Dodgers’ sustained success, as he was the go-to pitcher in many of their key games.
However, injuries began to derail Buehler’s trajectory in 2022. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, he missed the entire 2023 season, and there were concerns about how his recovery would affect his performance going forward. As a result, his status entering the 2024 season remains somewhat uncertain, making the one-year, $21.05 million deal with Boston a gamble. But it’s a gamble with the potential for substantial payoff.
The One-Year Deal: Low Risk, High Reward for the Red Sox
The structure of Buehler’s deal—just one year for over $21 million—could be the perfect fit for both the pitcher and the Red Sox. For Buehler, the one-year contract provides a chance to re-establish his value after missing a season and prove that he is still capable of being a frontline starter. If he performs well, he could secure a lucrative long-term deal in the 2025 offseason. For the Red Sox, the one-year commitment means they don’t have to tie up long-term money in Buehler if his recovery doesn’t pan out, but they still gain access to a potential ace for the upcoming season.
From a financial perspective, $21.05 million for a pitcher of Buehler’s caliber—if healthy—is an exceptional deal. The Red Sox would be paying for a pitcher who, at his best, could be the ace of their staff, something they have sorely lacked in recent years. While there’s no guarantee that Buehler will return to his pre-injury form, the Red Sox are hoping that a full, healthy season will help him regain his dominance and provide a major boost to their pitching staff.
Buehler’s Potential Impact on the Red Sox Rotation
Should Buehler return to his former All-Star form, he could give the Red Sox a true ace at the top of their rotation, something they’ve been missing since the heyday of Chris Sale. The addition of a healthy Buehler would allow the Red Sox to slide Sale further down the rotation, potentially reducing some of the pressure on him to be the team’s No. 1 starter. This could provide a better overall balance in the rotation and take some of the strain off Sale, who has struggled with injuries in recent years.
Having Buehler as a potential ace could also help elevate the performance of other pitchers in the rotation. Garrett Whitlock, who had an up-and-down 2023 season, could benefit from having a reliable veteran presence like Buehler in the clubhouse. Additionally, Buehler’s experience and leadership could be invaluable for the development of younger pitchers in the organization, especially if the Red Sox look to bolster their pitching depth in the coming seasons.
Buehler’s repertoire—highlighted by a devastating fastball and a sharp curveball—would also play well in Fenway Park. While Fenway’s hitter-friendly nature can make it challenging for pitchers, Buehler’s ability to generate strikeouts and induce weak contact gives him the tools to thrive in the park’s unique environment. His past success against some of the best lineups in the league indicates that he has the ability to adapt and succeed in high-pressure situations, which will be critical for the Red Sox if they are to compete in the American League East, one of the most competitive divisions in baseball.
The Health Question: A Key Factor in the Deal
Of course, the biggest question surrounding Buehler’s move to Boston will be his health. The Tommy John surgery he underwent in 2022 is a significant concern, as it often takes pitchers well over a year to fully regain their pre-surgery form. The fact that Buehler missed all of 2023 recovering from the surgery means that he is still working his way back to peak form. While some pitchers have been able to return from Tommy John surgery and perform at a high level—such as Buehler’s former teammate, Clayton Kershaw—there is always an element of uncertainty surrounding a pitcher’s recovery.
The Red Sox are taking a calculated risk in hoping that Buehler’s recovery will be swift and successful. If it is, they could find themselves with an ace-caliber pitcher at the top of their rotation for the 2024 season, giving them a real chance to compete for the playoffs. But if Buehler’s recovery does not go as planned, they are only on the hook for one season and can move forward without significant long-term financial commitment.
Conclusion: A Calculated Gamble with Major Upside
In conclusion, the potential signing of Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million deal represents a gamble for the Boston Red Sox, but one that could pay massive dividends. With their rotation in need of a significant upgrade, Buehler’s talent and upside—if healthy—could give them the ace they’ve been missing. The contract’s one-year structure allows the Red Sox to hedge their bets while still providing the opportunity for a game-changing addition to their pitching staff.
If Buehler can return to form after his Tommy John surgery, he could be the key to revitalizing the Red Sox’s postseason aspirations. The combination of his elite stuff, experience in high-pressure situations, and the motivation to prove himself again could give Boston the boost they need to compete in the AL East. Whether or not this move ultimately works out will depend on Buehler’s health and performance, but the potential for a dominant season is certainly there.
Leave a Reply