As the 2024 college football season rapidly approaches, fans and analysts alike are already looking ahead to the 2025 College Football Playoff (CFP) and the ever-changing landscape of college football’s elite programs. Every year, the number of schools considered legitimate contenders for the national championship grows, while others slip from contention due to program instability, recruiting issues, or other challenges. In the world of college football, there is perhaps no one more vocal or influential when it comes to ranking teams and discussing playoff possibilities than ESPN’s Paul Finebaum. Known for his sharp opinions and insightful commentary, Finebaum has built a reputation for being unafraid to voice bold predictions, especially when it comes to the top teams in the sport.
Recently, Finebaum made a particularly bold declaration about one prominent program that he believes will fall short of winning the College Football Playoff in 2025. His prediction has generated significant buzz, and it raises critical questions about the future of this powerhouse program. That school, according to Finebaum, is the University of Texas. Despite the Longhorns’ heavy investment in their football program, including recruiting top talent and building state-of-the-art facilities, Finebaum is skeptical that they will be able to capture a CFP title in the near future. This opinion is sure to stir debate, given Texas’ history, resources, and the high-profile addition of Arch Manning to the program.
Texas’ Ambitious Rebuild
Texas has long been regarded as one of the most prestigious programs in college football history. With four national championships and a rich football tradition dating back to the mid-1900s, the Longhorns have been one of the most successful programs in the country. However, since their last national title in 2005, Texas has struggled to maintain consistent excellence. They have cycled through several head coaches, endured disappointing seasons, and, more recently, faced a revolving door at the quarterback position, leading to a string of underwhelming results in the Big 12.
Under the leadership of head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been in the midst of a rebuilding phase. Sarkisian, known for his offensive acumen and success at previous stops like Alabama, took over in 2021 with the goal of returning the Longhorns to national prominence. While his first two seasons at the helm have shown some promise—Texas has had flashes of brilliance, especially on offense—there has been a lack of consistency, and the team has yet to make a truly deep run in the College Football Playoff conversation.
However, with the arrival of Arch Manning, one of the most highly anticipated quarterback prospects in recent memory, many Texas fans and analysts believed that the program was finally positioned to break through and challenge for a national title in the near future. Manning, who committed to Texas in 2023, is the nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning, and he carries a weight of expectations that few college players ever have to endure. While it’s clear that Arch Manning’s talent and pedigree are undeniable, Finebaum believes there are several factors working against the Longhorns that will prevent them from reaching the pinnacle of college football in 2025.
The Issue of Quarterback Development
While Arch Manning is undoubtedly an exceptional talent, Finebaum has raised concerns about whether Texas can adequately develop him into the championship-caliber quarterback that the program needs. College football is full of talented quarterbacks who never quite live up to their potential, and Finebaum’s primary concern is whether the Longhorns can develop Manning in a way that will lead to a national title.
The history of Texas football at quarterback has been turbulent. Since Vince Young led the team to a national championship in 2005, Texas has seen a carousel of quarterbacks struggle to make a lasting impact. Names like Colt McCoy, Garrett Gilbert, Sam Ehlinger, and most recently Quinn Ewers, have all come with high expectations, but none have been able to deliver a national championship. While McCoy led Texas to the 2009 national championship game, the Longhorns have not come close to capturing another title since Young’s victory.
Finebaum suggests that, despite Manning’s high ceiling, Texas has not yet proven they can consistently develop a quarterback into an elite, championship-winning talent. Manning’s development will be critical to Texas’ success, but with the program’s recent history of quarterback instability, Finebaum believes it is still too early to confidently say that the Longhorns will have the necessary offensive firepower to win a national championship.
Moreover, Texas will face stiff competition in the form of programs like Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan, which consistently produce high-level quarterbacks and coaching staffs that know how to succeed on the national stage. Finebaum contends that even with Manning in tow, Texas may still fall short in the quarterback battle, particularly if they encounter teams with better, more established playmakers at the position.
The Challenge of Recruiting and Program Depth
Another reason Finebaum does not see Texas winning the College Football Playoff in 2025 is their ongoing battle to develop the type of program depth that the elite teams consistently display. Programs like Georgia and Alabama have shown that sustained success is built not just on star players, but on recruiting depth, strong coaching, and elite development. The Longhorns, while recruiting at a high level, still have a ways to go before they can match the depth and overall talent of these perennial playoff contenders.
Texas’ recruiting classes in recent years have been impressive, but Finebaum points out that recruiting rankings alone do not guarantee success. While the Longhorns have stockpiled talent, they have struggled to put together a full roster of elite players across all positions. Championships are often won in the trenches, where offensive and defensive lines dominate games, and the Longhorns have not consistently been at the top of those areas compared to the top-tier programs.
Moreover, Texas has a history of underachieving despite bringing in top recruiting classes. The challenge is not just getting the best talent but developing that talent into championship-caliber players. In other words, while Texas might be on the cusp of having a deep roster, Finebaum believes that it will take more than just big-name recruits to push the program into the playoff picture and ultimately bring home a national title.
Competition from Elite Programs
In 2025, the College Football Playoff will likely feature several other programs that have been consistently dominant in the modern era. Finebaum points to the ongoing power of teams like Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State, who have shown an ability to reload year after year. These programs not only recruit well but also have the coaching stability, development systems, and player depth necessary to compete for championships consistently.
Georgia, under Kirby Smart, has become a juggernaut, winning back-to-back national championships in 2022 and 2023. With a defense that might be one of the best in recent memory and an offense led by talented playmakers, Georgia is poised to remain at the top of the sport for the foreseeable future.
Alabama, while undergoing some coaching changes and transitions, remains one of the most consistently successful programs in college football, particularly with Nick Saban still at the helm. Even as Saban nears the end of his illustrious career, Alabama’s pipeline of talent and their strong recruitment in the trenches positions them as a perennial threat in the CFP.
Ohio State, with its prolific offense and stability at quarterback, has been a constant contender in the playoff conversation, reaching multiple semifinals and national championship games in recent years.
In this environment, Finebaum believes that Texas will face an uphill battle. Even with a talented roster and the addition of Arch Manning, it may not be enough to overcome the institutional stability and depth that these other programs have built over years.
Texas’ Road to 2025: A Challenging Path
While it’s clear that Texas is on the rise, Finebaum’s cautionary prediction about their inability to win the College Football Playoff in 2025 stems from a combination of factors—quarterback development, lack of depth, and the stiff competition from perennial powerhouses. The Longhorns will need to overcome these hurdles and prove that they can maintain consistent excellence over the course of an entire season, a feat that has eluded them for over a decade.
For Texas fans, Finebaum’s comments are a sobering reminder that while expectations are high, there’s still a long road ahead for the program to return to national championship contention. While Arch Manning could very well be the piece that elevates Texas to new heights, the program will have to prove itself on the field and show that it has the depth, stability, and overall talent to match the elite programs in college football.
As 2025 approaches, all eyes will be on the Longhorns to see if they can silence critics like Paul Finebaum and finally deliver on their promise as one of college football’s storied programs. The challenge is steep, but for a team that’s spent so many years underperforming, the 2025 season could be the ultimate test of whether the Texas Longhorns are ready to reclaim their place among the sport’s elite.
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